Strengthening Regional and Middle Eastern States’ Engagement in Somali Stability: Options and Entry Points

Political (in)stability in Somalia is influenced as much by the behaviour of domestic stakeholders as it is by foreign states’ involvement in Somali politics. In recent years, this has been notably prominent through the involvement of Gulf states, especially since 2017, and the evolving political interests and objectives of regional states, such as Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea. This research seeks to unpack the ways in which regional and Gulf states’ behaviour affect political (in)stability in Somalia and seek to identify avenues for mediation and mitigation of adverse impacts.

It identifies five areas for engagement:

• Support to multilateral forums to promote dialogue and understanding across the region on shared issues.
• Engagement with the Somali business elite, recognising that the business arena can be a beneficial arena of trust building and mutual cooperation.
• Encourage more sensitive external investments and interventions, recognising that both foreign states and large foreign businesses involved in Somalia can achieve long-term benefits from deploying more conflict sensitive approaches.
• Support trilateral border cooperation between Somali, Ethiopia and Kenya. This should incorporate Track 1 through to Track 3 initiatives, linking the local to the diplomatic to advance mutual understanding and cooperation.
• Build consensus among Somali actors on the ways in which foreign states engage in Somalia and build consensus on the impact of this engagement and ways to manage it.

This paper forms part of the Funds wider research into long term conflict transformation, advancement of the political settlement and stabilisation.